Analysis of a four-year
trend in student participation and performance in the Ethiopian University Entrance

a)    Trend in Examinee Participation:

There is a sharp and consistent decline in the number of students sitting for the university entrance exam.

ü  From 2014 to 2017 E.C., the total number of examinees decreased by 310,641, representing a 34.6% drop in participation over four years.

ü  This suggests potential systemic issues such as high dropout rates in earlier secondary grades, a demographic shift, changes in eligibility criteria, or significant numbers of students opting for alternative paths like TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training).

b)    Trend in Academic Performance:

Despite the falling participation, the performance of those who do take the exam has improved dramatically.

ü  The pass rate held steady at a very low 3.2% for two years before beginning a significant upward climb.

ü  The pass rate increased by 68.8% from 2015 E.C. to 2016 E.C. (from 3.2% to 5.4%).

ü  It saw another major jump of 55.5% from 2016 E.C. to 2017 E.C. (from 5.4% to 8.4%).

ü  Overall, the pass rate has increased by 162.5% from its base of 3.2% in 2014 E.C. to 8.4% in 2017 E.C.

c)    Trend in Absolute Numbers Passing:

Even with far fewer students taking the exam, the absolute number of students passing has grown significantly due to the higher pass rate.

The number of successful students increased from 27,000 in 2015 E.C. to 48,929 in 2017 E.C.—an 81.2% increase in successful candidates over two years, despite a 30% smaller testing pool.